The U.S. Government Debt Crisis Is Almost Here

With the massive amount of money that has been printed by the U.S. Government this year, a U.S. government debt crisis is looming. In this video we will walk you through:

• Probability that a debt crisis will occur

• When the U.S. Government Debt Crisis could begin

• Should you be making changes to your investment allocation?

• Possible solutions to stave off the debt crisis

• Data that we use to track the government debt trends

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

How The COVID Second Wave Will Impact The Stock Market

As COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the United States, it has left investors wondering what impact this could have for the stock market in coming months.  In this article we are going to review: 

• Key Indicators To Track

• Impact of A Second Full Shutdown

• Chances of A Double Dip Recession

• Status of Vaccines And COVID-19 Treatments

• Government Stimulus Programs In The Works

Key Indicators To Track

We are not completely dismissing the traditional economic indicators such as unemployment rates, GDP, manufacturer’s index, and consumer spending habits. While we are in uncharted waters with this global pandemic, those indicators still allow us to piece together the US economy‘s timeline to recovery. However, it is hard to deny that COVID-19 tracking data such as daily infection rates will have a material impact on the decisions that investors will make in the coming months. From the experts we have spoken to, while daily infection rates would seem to be the most important, the more important data is the hospitalization rate and the number of people in the ICU. 

You could potentially have a lot of people getting infected with COVID-19, but as long as they are able to recover before the virus becomes life-threatening, it would indicate that the COVID-19 treatments are working, and the health system is getting better at treating the virus in the early stages. However, if we see hospitalization rates spiking, and the number of people in the ICU increasing dramatically, that could increase the likelihood of another fall shut down in various states, extending the time to recovery. 

The numbers are not great right now. The hospitalization rate is just over 80,000, which is much higher than the previous two peaks from earlier in 2020.  

COVID 19 infection rate

If this trend continues, it could put the capacity of the US health system to the test, and it could dramatically increase the number of daily deaths that we are currently seeing from the pandemic. 

Government Stimulus Programs

 If the current trends continue and the US elected officials determine the best way to reverse the trend is another full shut down of the economy, US citizens and businesses would most likely need support from the government to weather a second shut down.  Prior to the presidential elections, Congress was working on a second stimulus package which included another round of checks to be sent to individuals below certain income thresholds, a second round of PPP loans to businesses, state aid, and additional unemployment benefits. 

A few quick notes about the stimulus programs. In the preliminary legislation, we did not see any changes to the income threshold to receive the checks from the IRS, but the amounts could potentially be different. This means if you received a check the first time, you will most likely receive a check in the second round. There were several changes made to the criteria of small businesses to receive PPP loan money. Businesses now would have to show a percentage of loss revenue during a specified period to be eligible for the second round of PPP loans.  For the unemployment benefits, the primary legislation suggests that it will be a lower bonus amount than the previous $600 per week. 

The largest clear and present danger to the market is if the economy goes into a second shut down and Congress is not able to agree upon terms of a second round of stimulus to aid US citizens and businesses. Time will be of the essence, and if Congress waits too long to act, irreversible damage could be done to the US economy, which may prolong the timeline to recovery. 

With that said, if Congress is able to provide the economy with the aid it needs to bridge the gap between where we are now to the beginning of the post COVID-19 era, the market could respond very favorably to that environment, even though the news headlines will be ugly in the coming weeks. 

The Market Is Forward-Looking

Through all of this, we must remember that the stock market is a forward-looking animal. As we have seen in the past, while the news today may be bad, if the market sees light at the end of the tunnel, it will not necessarily prompt a huge sell off knowing that relief is on the way. As COVID-19 treatments and vaccines continue to gain approval for emergency use, it could provide the market with that reinsurance by mid-2021. The US economy could be on its way to a meaningful recovery, but as I mentioned above, that also assumes that the government will be willing to step in and provide financial support if an economic shutdown takes place in the coming weeks or months. 

What does this mean for investors? If you have a long time horizon, it is important to keep your long-term perspective, even though the markets may gyrate in the short term.  For conservative investors, it is acknowledging that there are still a lot of variables that have yet to play out over the course of the next few months, and maintaining the appropriate balance between risk and return within their portfolio is key. 

Chances of A Double Dip Recession

What are the chances that the market takes another big dive like we saw in March and April of 2020?  Based on the information that we have gathered, in my personal opinion, the market could experience a sell off or two before we are on the other side of this pandemic, but I would be surprised if it is of the magnitude that we saw earlier in 2020.  The reason for this being, we are most likely towards the end of this pandemic versus the beginning or the middle. During the big sell off at the beginning of 2020, the S&P 500 index dropped by 34%.  The market at that point had no way to know what was on the horizon because the virus had just arrived, we were learning about it as it was spreading, and there were no treatments in the works, so the market had no way of forecasting what the timeline could be to recovery.  It seems like we are in a much different environment now even though the US Economy faces the threat of a second wave. 

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  If we get a full shutdown of the US economy in the coming weeks or months, it is not off the table that we could have a negative GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, technically classifying it as a double dip recession.  Only time will tell. 

Status of COVID-19 Vaccines And Treatments

It is encouraging that new treatments and vaccines are being approved by the FDA on almost a weekly basis.  The challenge becomes the level of production needed, and the distribution of these treatments to the US population. we have to acknowledge that some of these treatments have their own challenges.  One of the vaccines that was recently announced has to be stored at a negative 70 degrees Celsius, which is a lot colder then your typical commercial freezer.  Special trucks would need to be built to transport it, and special freezers would have to be built and installed to house the vaccine. It also becomes a question of how long the vaccination will last, of if COVID-19 mutates, thus rendering the current vaccines less effective.  There are still a lot of question marks even though there seems to be hope around the treatments that are being released now.  The positive note is there is both treatments being created for those that have been infected by the virus while at the same time vaccines are being developed to help people from getting the virus in the first place.  The stock market will undoubtedly be watching closely to how effective these treatments are at treating the virus, and in turn painting a picture as to the timeline did the economic recovery post COVID-19. 

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

The Coronavirus Battle Will Be Won Or Lost By April 30th

These are unprecedented times. Over the past few weeks we have spent countless hours researching past epidemics, listening to medical experts, economists, market analysts, hedge fund managers, and local business owners.  Of all the things we’ve learned up to this point, one thing seems very clear to us, we should know by April 30th whether the U.S. economy is setting itself up for a quick recovery or a prolonged recession.

Why April 30th?  Confirmed cases of the Coronavirus are going to spike in the upcoming weeks as test results come back. As we charge toward the peak of the infection rate, we will begin to see whether the inflection rate is accelerating or leveling out.  All of this is driven by the effectiveness of the containment efforts that are being put in place now.  But will it be enough and when will investors know which path the economy is on?

In addition, we are beginning to see some abnormal behavior from certain asset classes within the financial markets as stimulus packages and rate cuts are put to work by countries around the globe.  In this article, we will present those trends and help investors prepare for what could be next for the financial markets.

A Race Against Time

The US economy is in a race against time.  While every day the headlines are filled with breaking news about bailout packages, interest rate cuts, infection rates, and the stock market dropping by over 1000 points a day, at the risk of over oversimplifying it, there are really only 3 things that matter: 

• Containing the virus as soon as possible

• Keeping businesses solvent during the shutdown

• Providing individuals with financial assistance to pay their bills

These items are listed in the order of priority and I'm going to explain why. 

#1: Containment

If the US government is not able to slow the infection rate by the end of April, it’s going to be difficult for many businesses to sustain operations without layoffs.  While layoffs have already begun in industries directly impacted by the Coronavirus containment efforts such as restaurants, airlines, and hotels, this trend would most likely spread into the broader economy and make a quick recovery less likely.

The ideal scenario is the containment efforts prove effective and by the end of April the rate of infection decreases or levels out, fear subsides in the market knowing that progress is being made, and people resume travelling, restaurants reopen, and global spending and trade return to “pre-Corona” levels. In this scenario, the losses that we have seen in the U.S. stock market could rebound quickly in the second half of the year.

In addition, if there is swift recovery, the U.S. consumer and businesses now have access to lower interest rates, oil prices not seen since 2002, and an economy that would most likely resume it’s steady growth trend.

Error On The Side Of More

As we have seen in prior economic crises, problems become much larger when the government does not act fast enough or with enough firepower to manage the threat; that is especially true of the current situation.  Understanding that time is everything in this situation, the government should be erroring on the side of more swift and restrictive measures to contain the virus. Rolling out containment efforts in pieces as we have seen over the past two weeks, in my opinion, creates more risk to achieving a positive outcome and from speaking with business owners over the past few days, it creates more disruption.  If you are a business that is still allowed to operate in this environment but every day new restrictions are passed down in pieces, valuable time has to be taken to digest those rules, determine how it impacts the business, and then communicate the new restrictions to the employees.  I have heard some business owners say “it would actually be better for us if they just shut everything down for two weeks”.

Erroring on the side of “more” will hurt the stock market and the economy in the short term but I think it will give us a better chance of avoiding a prolonged recession.  But we will just have to wait to see how effective the current containment efforts are over the course of the next few weeks.

#2:  Keeping Businesses Solvent

The second priority is keeping businesses solvent during the economic slowdown.  Most businesses can survive disruptions that last 30 to 60 days if they are given access to cheap capital.  It's for this reason that the Fed has rapidly dropped interest rates to almost zero and has pumped billions of dollars of liquidity into the system to encourage banks to lend.  The U.S. government is also working on stimulus packages that would provide direct capital injection for industries most adversely effected by the containment efforts. What we are experiencing now is the first “all stop” global economic shutdown that we have ever seen.  The government is trying to minimize the number of companies that go insolvent between now in the containment of the virus.  At this point, it seems like the U.S. is doing an adequate job of opening up the cash floodgates for the companies here in the U.S. 

#3: Financial Assistance For Individuals

The third priority is providing financial assistance for individuals that have been laid off so they can continue meet their basic needs while this containment process runs its course. There are discussions happening right now about the U.S. government sending everyone a check for $1,000, programs for deferring student loan payments, and encouraging financial institutions to create special programs for individuals that have been negatively impacted by the economic slowdown.  But I placed this lower on the priority list than business solvency because most people can survive being laid off for a month or two with some financial assistance from the government, but if the current environment turns into a prolonged recession, they lose their job, and are unable to find work over the next 6 to 12 months, that it a much dire situation.  It’s vitally important for the U.S. to preserve jobs during this containment period. 

Abnormal Activity

When there are unprecedented events that occur in the markets, they bring with them abnormal behaviors within financial markets that tend to surprise investors.  During the recent market selloff there are two unexpected events that have occurred: 

• The pace of the market selloff

• Recent losses in the bond market

During the recent selloff, the U.S. stock market set a record when it lost over 20% if its value in just 16 days. By comparison, below is a chart of the other 20% declines in the stock market and the number of days it took for the 20% drop to happen.  

To us, this speaks to the fear and uncertainty surrounding the events that are currently unfolding in the markets. In addition, the average daily price movement of the S&P 500 Index over the past 2 weeks has been 5% per day.  That’s a crazy amount of volatility. 

Turning to the bond market, a surprising trend has unfolded over the past week.  Typically, when the stock market is selling off, interest rates go down, and bond prices go up.  This allows bonds to appreciate in value and offset some of the losses from the stock side of the portfolio.  While this was the trend for the first two weeks of the sell off, that trend recently reversed. The stock market was selling off and interest rates where rising.  This created an environment where both stocks and bonds were losing value at the same time.  Not an ideal market environment for a diversified portfolio.  On March 17th, the yield on the 10 year treasury bond went from 0.72% to 1.08% which is a big move for a bond yield in a single day, especially considering that the stock market was down that day.

Why did that happen?  We can point to a few reasons.  First, the bond market is anticipating a $1 trillion dollar stimulus package to be released by Congress.  When the government wants to spend $1 trillion dollars, it does so by issuing bonds which is debt. The demand for bonds, especially of this magnitude, are not in high demand because governments around the world are also spending money to stimulate their own economy.  To entice people to buy our bonds, they have to offer them at a higher interest rate.

Along those same lines, countries that hold our bonds have been selling them to raise cash to fund their own stimulus packages. As demand for U.S. bonds decreases, the interest rate goes up and the price of the bonds goes down.   Will this trend continue?  Interest rates could move slightly higher in the short-term but the Fed has the ability to step in and start buying U.S. bonds if it wants to lower interest rates. In addition, the flight to safety trade will most likely continue in upcoming weeks as the uncertainty surrounding the containment efforts persists which will also create additional demand for U.S. Treasuries.

What To Expect

As we sit here on March 19th, it’s tough to handicap which outcome is more likely: a quick bounce back or a prolonged recession. However, the upcoming few weeks are going to be key at providing us with evidence on the success or failure of the containment efforts.  Investors need to be ready to make changes to their investment portfolios over the upcoming months as the likely outcome begins to surface.  The current market environment has the makings to either be one of the greatest investment opportunities of all time or just the beginning of a prolonged slowdown in the U.S. economy.  Emotions will temp investors to make irrational investment decisions but it’s important to keep the relevant economic and financial market data in focus.  Stay safe, stay healthy, and we welcome any questions that you have regarding the current market environment. 

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Market Selloff: Time To Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Coronavirus Selloff

Over the past month, the stock market has dropped by 20%. Largely due to the economic impact of the Coronavirus.  As the feeling of panic continues to increase here in the U.S., our clients are asking:

• Should we be buying stocks at these lower levels?

• Is it going to get worse before it gets better?

• How quickly do you think the market will bounce back after the virus is contained?

Having managed money for clients through the Tech Bubble, The Great Recession of 2008/2009, and countless market selloffs, while the circumstances are always different from crisis to crisis, there are patterns that seem to be consistent within each market selloff.  Being able to identify those patterns is key in determining what the next move should be within your investment portfolio and I’m going to share those with you today.

DISCLOSURE:  Throughout this article I will be using examples of industries and companies.  These are not recommendations to buy or sell a particular stock.  Please consult your investment professional for advice.

Is The Market Oversold?

When there is a market selloff, one of the key questions we’re trying to answer is: “Has the stock market overreacted to the risks that are being presented?” In answering this question, I think the key thing that investors forget is that a company’s stock price represents more than just one year of its earnings.  When investors buy a stock it’s typically because they expect that company to grow over the course of multiple years and yield a generous return.  Unexpected events like the Coronavirus without question impact those projections but it’s not uncommon for the market to overreact because it’s focused on what’s going to happen to that company’s revenue in the short term.

A good example of this are the airlines in the United States. Due to the Coronavirus companies have canceled conferences, people have canceled vacations, and sporting events have been postponed or are now being played without spectators. That is a direct hit to the airlines in the U.S. because prior to the Coronavirus they had projected a specific amount of revenue to be generated during 2020 based on all that activity.  But here comes the key question.  Many of the airline stocks in the U.S. have dropped by more than 50% in the past 60 days.  If investors believe that the Coronavirus will eventually be contained in the coming months, are those airlines really only worth half of what they were 60 days ago?

Buffett’s Words of Wisdom

I hesitate to use Warren Buffett’s famous quote because it’s used with such frequency but it’s proven to be a valuable investment practice during times of uncertainty: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”  While it’s easy to say, it’s very difficult to execute effectively. Buying low and selling high goes against every human emotion.  It often means stepping into the most unloved names, at what would seem to be the worst time, and owning that decision.  Right now those investments seem to be the airlines, hotels, cruiselines, oil companies, and other industries directly tied to travel and tourism.

This same concept also applies to the decision to “hold” or not sell your equity holdings when the market is in a panic.  Even though no one likes to see their investment accounts lose value, if you were positioned appropriately prior to the start the Coronavirus pandemic, in my professional opinion, you should not be making any adjustments to your portfolio given the recent market events.  If however, you were allocated too aggressively based on your own personal risk tolerance or time horizon, you have a much more difficult decision to make.

Short Term vs Long Term Risks

Market selloffs are typically triggered by two types of risks: short term risks and long term risks.  Being able to identify which risk the market is facing should greatly influence the decisions that you are making within your investment portfolio.

I’m going to use the airlines again as an example.  In my personal option, the Coronavirus represents a short-term risk to the airline industry.   In an effort to contain the virus, conferences have been cancelled, companies have told their employees not to travel, people have canceled vacations, etc.  But you have to ask yourself this question: “what’s likely to happen once the virus is contained?”  Conferences may be rescheduled, business travel resumes, and people map out a new plan for their vacation.  There is arguably pent up demand being created right now that the airlines will benefit from once the virus is contained.

Back when 9/11 happened, I viewed that risk as a longer term risk for the airlines because people could choose to permanently change their behavior and choose not to fly for a very long time based on that event.   In the 2008 financial crisis, the banks had a long road ahead of them as they executed plans to dig out of their leveraged positions.  Problems of this nature usually require more time to fix which is why these longer term risks can justify a move from stocks into bonds.

Winners and Losers

Even with short term risk diversification is key.   Just because a risk is a short term risk does not necessarily mean all companies are going to survive it.  There is a risk to all companies that are impacted by market events that they run out of cash before the tide turns back to the upside. If you are an investor looking to buy into airlines at these lower levels, it's typically prudent to buy multiple companies in smaller increments, as opposed to establishing a large position in a single airline.  Again, just an example, if you decide to buy stock in American Airlines, Delta, Southwest, and United Airlines, the risk of buying low is one of the four may run out of money before the virus is contained and they are forced with filing bankruptcy without a bailout from the government.  If you put all of your money into one airline, you are taking on a lot more risk.  

Buyer’s Remorse

One of the lessons I’ve learned from buying during a market selloff is you need to keep your long-term perspective. Meaning when you purchase a stock that has dropped significantly, there are forces acting on that company that could cause it to drop by more.  You have to be comfortable with that reality and you have to possess the time horizon to weather the storm in the likely case that it could get worse before it gets better.

It’s all too common that investors purchase a stock thinking that since it’s already dropped 30%+ that it can’t possibly go any lower, only to watch it drop by another 30% and then feel pressured to sell it thinking they made a mistake.  I call this “buyer’s remorse”.  When you play the role of an opportunistic investor, it may take months or years for the benefit to be realized.  Investing for a “quick pop” is a fool’s game, especially with the Coronavirus situation. No one knows how long it’s going to take to contain the virus, how badly Q1 and Q2 revenue will be hurt for companies, or will it end up causing a recession.  Making the decision to buy stock at lower levels is usually based on the investment thesis that the stock market is overreacting to a relatively short term event and those companies getting hit the hardest will recover over time.

How Much Time Will It Take For the Market To Recover?

No one knows the answer to this question because we have never really been in this situation before.  We have been through other epidemics in the past such as SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and Ebola, but nothing that spread as quickly or as broadly around the globe as the Coronavirus. Since China was ground zero for the virus, the good news is we are already seeing significant progress being made at containing the virus.  

As you can see via the blue line in the chart, at the beginning of February China was reporting thousands of new cases every day, but since the beginning of March the line flattens out, meaning the number new people getting infected is tapering off.  If the United States follows a similar trajectory, we may see the rate of infection rise significantly in the upcoming days only to see the numbers taper off a month or two from now.

I would argue that we have an added advantage over China and Europe in that we had more time to prepare, we know more about the spread of the virus, and how to contain it.  I think the lesson that we learned from Europe was you have to be aggressive in your containment efforts which is why you are seeing the extreme measures that the U.S. is taking to contain the spread of the virus. Those extreme containment efforts hurt the market more in the short term but will hopefully result in less damage to the economy over the longer term.

It’s really a race against time. The longer it takes to contain the virus, the longer it takes for people to get back to work, the longer it takes for people to feel safe traveling again, which results in more companies being put at risk of running out of capital waiting for the recovery to arrive.  This is the reason why the Fed is aggressively dropping interest rates right now.  Dropping interest rates does absolutely nothing to contain the virus or make people feel safe about traveling but it provides companies that are struggling due to the loss of revenue with access to low interest rate debt to bridge the gap.

A Recession Is Very Possible

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.   With the global slowdown that has taken place in 2020, the U.S. economy may post a negative GDP number for the first quarter.  Since it takes a while to bring global supply chains back online and for consumers to return to their normal spending behaviors, it's possible that the U.S. economy could also post a negative GDP number for the second quarter as well.  By definition, that puts the U.S. economy in a recession. But it may end up being a very brief recession as the Coronavirus reaches containment, global supply chains come back online, pent up demand for goods and services is fulfilled, and U.S. households and businesses have the dual benefit of having access to lower oil prices and lower interest rates. 

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Coronavirus vs. SARS: Buying Opportunity?

As fears of the Coronavirus continue to spread, this week was the largest drop in the stock market since the 2008 / 2009 financial crisis.  On Thursday, February 27, 2020, the Dow Jones Index dropped by 1,191 points, making it the largest single day point drop in the history of the index.  As the selling has intensified into the week, clients are asking us what we expect in the upcoming weeks.  Should they be buying the dip? Do we expect a further selloff from here?

Like most major market events, we have to look back in history to find similar events that allow us to model how the markets might behave from here.   This week, we have conducted extensive research into virus outbreaks that have happened in the past such as SARS, MERS, Zika, and Swine Flu, in an effort to better understand possible outcomes to the Coronavirus epidemic.  In this article, I’m going to share with you:

• Coronavirus vs SARS / Zika / other epidemics

• What makes the Coronavirus different than other epidemics in the past

• Why has this selloff been so fast & fierce

• Disruptions to the global supply chain

• Performance of the stock market following the end of epidemics in the past

• Will the Fed lower rates to help the market

• When does this become a buying opportunity for investors

Coronavirus vs SARS

We spent an extensive amount of time comparing Coronvavirus to SARS, and other epidemics in the past.  Without a doubt, the Coronavirus is very different than many of the epidemics that we have seen in the past which is making financial modeling very difficult.  When we compare the Coronavirus to SARS and other outbreaks, the rate at which the Coronavirus has spread in the first 30 days is unprecedented.  Here are a few time lapse charts that compares the infection rate of the Coronavirus to SARS, Ebola, MERS, and Swine Flu.  

When you compare SARS to the Coronavirus at Day 19, SARS was much worse out of the gates. By Day 19, SARS had infected 1,490 people and 53 people had died, making the death rate 3.6%.  By comparison, at Day 19, Coronavirus had only infected 123 people in China, and resulted in 2 deaths.  Making the death rate 1.6%. 

However, only 7 days later, at Day 26, the story completely changed:  

By Day 26, the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus rocketed higher, outpacing that of SARS in the early 2000’s.  In addition, the death toll for the Coronavirus jumped to 79 people. 

But then it continued to get worse. By Day 43, the chart says it all:  

By day 43, the number of confirmed cases of the Coronavirus jumped to 43,099 compared to just 3,860 confirmed cases of the SARS virus during that same time period.  The death toll for the Coronavirus had risen to over 1,000 people compared to 217 from SARS during that same time period.  This chart highlights the main issue with the Coronavirus. It’s spreading faster than government’s are able to control compared to most epidemics in the past. 

Now, I say “most” because when we started gathering the data, there is a chart that looks similar to the Coronravirus outbreak.  If I move these charts forward to Day 122, this is what happened with the Swine Flu in Mexico in 2009.  

The Swine Flu was relatively mute for the first 50 days, but after day 50, the chart looks very similar to the fast spread of the Coronavirus. By Day 122, 2.1M people had been infected with the Swine Flu and over 10,000 people had died. 

So why didn’t you hear more about the Swine flu when it was happening? The death rate of the Swing Flu was only 0.5%.  Compare this to the current 2.1% estimated death rate of the Coronavirus, which is not as high as the SARS death rate of 4.9%, but it is significantly higher than the Swine Flu.  Here is a chart comparing the death rate of SARS, Coronavirus, and MERS:  

Another important note, the Swine Flu was fairly wide spread as well.  See the chart below from the World Health Organization on the Swine Flu:

However, given how fast the Coronavirus is spreading in it’s early stage, it could end up having a larger global footprint than the Swine Flu if they are unable to contain it soon.

Key Takeaway From The Comparison

Our key takeaway from this comparison is that Coronavirus has spread more quickly in the early stages compared to past epidemics which represents a larger risk to the markets than in the past.  Due to the pace of the spread, it’s difficult to put an estimated timeline together for containment.  When we look at the comparison of Coronavirus to the Swine Flu, it shows that there could be further downside risks to the markets if the spread of the virus follows a similar glide path.

Coronavirus Disruption To The Market

We issued an article earlier this week explaining the business impact of the Coronavirus.

Article: Coronavirus & The Market Selloff

I just want to quickly summarize again what’s causing the market selloff from a business standpoint.  As the Coronavirus continues to spread to other regions, it forces governments to restrict the movements of its people in an effort to contain the spread of the virus.  This means transportation is shut down, events are canceled where there would have been large gatherings of people, and employees are not going to work. Also, when people are afraid, they don’t go out to eat, and they don’t go shopping.  All of these things have a direct impact on the revenue of the companies that make up the stock market.  When these companies entered 2020, there was no expectation that their manufacturing operations could be completely shut down due to a global health epidemic.  The stock market right now is trying to determine how much it needs to discount the prices of these companies based on the revenue that’s being lost.

The longer the epidemic continues, the longer it takes people to get back to work, the longer it takes people to resume their normal spending habits, and the more damage it does to the markets.

The China Impact

When comparing SARS to the Coronavirus it’s also important to acknowledge the growth in the size of China’s economy between 2003 and 2020.  When the SARS outbreak happened in 2003, China’s economy only represented 8.7% of global GDP.  As of 2019, China’s economy now equals 19% of total global GDP.  Since the Coronavirus has been the most wide spread in China, It will have a much larger impact on the markets around the globe compared to the SARS outbreak when China was a much smaller player in the global economy.

Valuations in the U.S. Stock Market 

In our opinion, one of the other big factors that has fueled the magnitude of the selloff here in the U.S., is the simple fact that going into 2020, the stock market was overvalued already by historic terms.  As of December 31, 2019, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 18.  The 25 year historical average P/E for the S&P 500 Index is 16.  This essentially means that stocks were expensive going into the beginning of the year.  When stocks are already arguably overvalued, and a negative event happens, the prices have to drop by more realizing that those companies are not going to produce the earnings growth for the upcoming year that was already baked into the stock price.  

Fed Lowering Rates

There is talk now of the Fed coming to the markets aid and lowering interest rates throughout the year.  Going into 2020, it was the market’s expectation that the Fed was going to remain on hold for 2020.  In my opinion, the rate cuts are probably warranted at this point, given the unexpected slowdown to the global economy as a result of the Coronavirus. But I would also warn that the Fed lowering interest rates is not in itself going to heal the markets.    Giving companies access to cheaper capital is not going to make people feel safer about traveling around the globe and it’s not going to help manufacturers resume operations if their employees can’t get to the factory due to travel restrictions.

However, giving companies access to cheaper capital will allow them to better weather the storm while the governments around the world work on a containment plan.  Without that access to cheap capital, you could see companies going under because it took revenue too long to ramp back up.

Global Supply Chain

Investors should not underestimate the damage that has been done to the global supply change and how long it takes to get the supply chain back up and running again.  A good example are car manufacturers.  They do not typically keep large inventories of parts, and if those parts are not being made, they’re not being shipped, meaning they can’t build the cars, so they can’t sell the cars, and revenue drops.

Within the electronics industry, a lot of the products are made up of hundreds if not thousands of components, and the product does not work without all of those components. If there is one computer chip that is made in Korea,  and the manufacturing of those chips has been halted, then the end product cannot be built and shipped.  The examples go on and on  but when you think of manufacturing around the globe being brought offline, it’s not like a light switch where you can go and simply turn it back on.  It takes a while for it to get back up and running again. So while investors might think the Coronavirus could just impact Q1 revenue, it’s more likely that it will impact revenue beyond just the first quarter.

When Do You Buy The Dip?

I have received a lot of calls from clients asking if they should begin buying stocks at these lower levels with the anticipation of a bounce back. When we look at other epidemics in the past, there has been a sizable rally in the stock market 6 to 12 months after the epidemic has ended.  The chart below shows each epidemic and the subsequent 6 month and 12 month return of the S&P 500 after the epidemic ended.  On average, the stock market rose 20% a year following the end of the epidemic which is why investors are eager to buy into the selloff.

In my personal opinion, at some point, the Coronavirus will be contained and it will create an opportunity for investors.  There is pent up demand being accumulated now that will need to be filled after the virus is contained.  Individuals will most likely reschedule vacations and travel plans once they feel it’s safe to travel around the globe, and the Fed, via lower rates, will have given companies access to even cheaper capital to grow.  But as I write this article on February 28th, I caution investors. When you look at the data that we’ve collected, there could definitely be more downside to the selloff if they are unable to contain the spread of the Coronavirus within the next few weeks. The market right now is just trying to guess how much damage has been done with no real solid guidance as to whether it’s guessing right or wrong.

It may be prudent to wait for evidence that progress is being made on the containment efforts of the virus before buying back into the market.  For long term investors, it’s important to understand that while the Coronavirus will undoubtedly have an impact on the revenue of companies in 2020, in the past, epidemics have rarely changed the fate of solid companies over the long term.

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Coronavirus & The Market Selloff

Today was a wild ride for the stock market.  The Dow Jones posted a loss of 1,031 points on February 24, 2020 as fears of the continued spread of the Coronavirus sparked a selloff in the stock market.   Over the past 24 hours, we've received the following questions from clients that I want to address in this article: 

• Why is the market selling off on this news?

• Do you think the selloff will continue?

• Should you be moving money out of stocks into bonds?

Why Is Market Selling Off On This News?

You have to remember that the stock market is made up of individual companies.   Each company’s stock price is just an educated guess by investors as to how much those companies are going to make in profits over the next 3 months, 1 year, 5 years, and beyond.  Unexpected events like the Coronavirus create large deviations between those educated guesses and actual results.

In the case of the Coronavirus, it’s disrupting the revenue stream of many companies that produce and sell goods across the globe.  For example, Nike receives 17% of its revenue from China, and the company has temporarily closed more than half of its stores in China.  The stores that remain open are operating on abbreviated hours.  If the stores are not open, then they can’t sell Nike shoes and apparel, which will most likely cause Nike’s Q1 revenue to be lower than expected. That in turn could cause the stock price to drop once the Q1 earnings report is released later this year.

But it’s not just Nike.  The S&P 500 Index is made up of a lot of companies that sell goods in China and other locations around the world: Apple, Yum Brands, McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble, and the list goes on.   Beyond just retail, you have airlines, hotels, and casinos that are being negatively impacted as people cancel travel plans and vacations.  The point I’m trying to make is there are real business reasons why the stock market is reacting the way it is, it’s not just displaced fear.

All of these companies are trying to figure out right now what the impact will be to their revenue. The next question then becomes, how much are these companies going to miss by?

Do You Think the Selloff Will Continue?

That leads us into the next questions which is “do you think the selloff will continue?” Historically, contagious disease outbreaks have been quickly contained, such as the SARS outbreak in the early 2000’s.  The amount of damage to the markets seems to be highly correlated to the amount of time it takes to contain the outbreak. The longer it takes to contain the outbreak, the longer it takes people to return to work and to return to their normal spending habits.   The news broke this morning that there are new confirmed cases of the Coronavirus in Italy and South Korea which makes investors question whether or not the threat has been contained.

Unfortunately, there is no solid answer as to how long the current selloff might last.  It could end tomorrow or it could continue off and on over the next few weeks.   But it’s important to remember that even though market events like the Coronavirus do impact the short-term profitability of companies, it’s less common that these types of events impact the long-term performance.   When you have a selloff sparked by a single market event versus a full blown recession, it’s not uncommon for long term investors to start stepping into the market and buying stocks at these lower levels.

Should You Be Moving Money Out Of Stocks Into Bonds?

This bring us to the final question, should you be making changes to your investment portfolio based on today’s market events?   In my opinion, the answer to that is “no” but I think there is a lesson to be learned for investors that are still overweight stocks in their portfolio.  Over the past year, the stock market has appreciated rapidly in value but the growth rate of corporate earnings has lagged behind.  When this happens, stocks start to become overvalued, and the market becomes more vulnerable to selloffs.

This week the selloff was sparked by the Coronavirus, a few months from now it could be fears surrounding the elections in the U.S., trade, or some other geopolitical event.  When you enter the later stages of an economic expansion, volatility, which has been largely absent from the U.S. stock market over the past few years, becomes a common place.  Investors that have elected to stay overweight riskier asset classes in the later stages of this economic cycle, need to make sure they have the risk tolerance and discipline to weather these market selloffs.

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Manufacturing Is Contracting: Another Economic Indicator Flashes Red

Yet another important economic indicator rolled over this week which has triggered a sell-off in the U.S. equity markets.   Each month the Institute of Supply Management (“ISM”) issues two reports: 

Manufacturing ISM Report

Non-Manufacturing ISM Report 

A reading above 50 indicates an expansion and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. The Manufacturing ISM Report was released on Tuesday and it showed a reading of 47.8 for September indicating that manufacturing in the U.S. is beginning to contract. Not only was it the first contraction of the index within the last few years but the index reached a level not seen since 2009.  In this article we will cover: 

• Why the ISM Index is important

• Historically what happens to the stock market after the reading goes below 50?

• What caused the unexpected drop in the ISM index?

• Manufacturing trends around the globe and how they could impact the U.S. stock market

Why The ISM Index Is Important

The ISM Manufacturing Index tells us how healthy the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy is.  This index is also referred to as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and I will explain why.  The ISM issues a monthly survey to more than 300 manufacturing companies.  The purchasing managers at these big manufactures are on the front line when it comes to getting a read on the pulse of business conditions.  The survey includes questions on the trends in new orders, production, inventories, employment, supply chain, and backlog orders. The ISM assigns weightings to each metric, aggregates all of the responses together, and it results in the data point that signals either an expansion or a contraction.

If most of the manufactures in the U.S. have a ton of new orders, inventories are low, and they are looking to hire more people, that would most likely produce a reading above 50, implying that the outlook is positive for the U.S. economy as these big manufactures ramp up production to meet the increase in demand for their products.

On the other hand, if these surveys show a drop off in new orders, inventories are rising, or hiring has dropped off, that would most likely produce a reading below 50, implying that manufacturing and in turn the U.S. economy is slowing down.  Analysts will use the ISM index to get a read on what corporate earnings might look like at the end of the quarter. If the index is dropping during the quarter, this could be foreshadowing a shortfall in corporate earnings for the quarter which the stock market will not find out about until after the quarter end.

Here is a historic snapshot of the ISM’s Manufactures Index:

As you will see in the chart, manufacturing has been slowing over the course of the past year but up until September, it was still expanding at a moderate pace.  For September, economists had broadly expected a reading of 50.4 but the ISM report produced a result of 47.8 signaling a contraction for the first time since 2016.

What Does This Mean For The Stock Market?

So in the past, when the ISM Index has gone below 50, what happened to the stock market?  To answer that question, let’s start by looking at a chart that shows the correlation between the ISM Index and the S&P 500 Index:  

The dark blue line is the ISM index and the light blue line is the S&P 500 Index. Looking at this data, I would highlight the following points: 

• The ISM Index and the S&P 500 Index seem to move in lockstep. While the ISM might give you a preview of what quarterly earnings might look like, it does not give you a big forward looking preview of bad things to come. By the time the ISM index starts dropping, the stock market is already dropping with it.

• We need more data. There have been a few times that the index has gone below 50 within the last 20 years and it has not been followed by a recession. Look at 2016 for example. The ISM index dropped below 50, but if you trimmed your equity positions at that point, you missed the big rally from January 2017 through September 2019. We need more data because historically multiple back to back months of readings below have signaled a recession.

• If the index hits 45 or lower within the next few months, watch out below!!

What Caused The Most Recent Drop In The ISM Manufactures Index?

When it comes to unexpected market events, there is usually a wide mote of differing opinions.  But it seems like the most recent drop could be attributed to a continued weakening of spending by U.S. businesses.  While the U.S. consumer seems to still be strong and spending money, spending by businesses on big ticket items has tapered off over the past few months. 

As you will see in the chart above, durable goods orders have dropped over the past two months which is the main barometer for business spending.  When businesses are uncertain about the future, they tend to not spend money and business owners have no lack of things to be worried about going into 2020.  The growth rate of the U.S. economy has been slowing, uncertainty surrounding global trade continues, and 2020 is an election year.  One or more of these uncertainties may need to resolve themselves before businesses are willing to resume spending. 

Global Manufacturing Trends

While manufacturing in the U.S. just started contracting in September, the picture is a little darker when we look at the manufacturing trends in other parts of the world.   Below is a heat map that shows the PMI Index for countries all around the world. Here is how you read it: 

• Green is good. Manufacturing is expanding

• Yellow is neutral: Manufacturing is flat

• Red is bad: Manufacturing is contracting

If you look at 2017 and 2018, there was a lot of green all around the world indicating that manufacturing was expanding around the globe. As we have progressed further into 2019, you are beginning to see more yellow and in some areas of the world there is red indicating contraction. Look at Germany in particular.  There has been big change in the economic conditions in Europe and the global economy is very interconnected. The weakness that started in Europe seems to be spreading to other places throughout the globe. 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Now, you could make the argument that the U.S. is a services economy and it does not rely heavily on manufacturing, so how much does this contraction in manufacturing really matter?  Well, if we switch gears to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index which surveys the services sector of the US economy, the September report just came out with a reading of 52.6 compared to the 55.3 that the market was expecting.   This is also down sharply from the 56.4 reported for August. 

While the services sector of the U.S. economy is not contracting yet, it seems like the numbers may be headed in that direction. 

What Investors Should Expect

There are pluses and minuses to this new ISM data.  The contraction of the ISM Manufactures Index and the deceleration of the growth rate of the ISM Non-Manufactures Index in September is just another set of key economic indicators that are now flashing red.  Implying that we may be yet another step closer to the arrival of the next recession in the U.S. economy. 

The only small positive that can be taken away from this data is that the Fed now has the weak economic data that it needs to begin aggressively reducing interest rates in the U.S. which could boost stock prices in the short term.  But investors have to be ready for the rollercoaster ride that the stock market may be headed towards as these two forces collide in the upcoming months. 

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

What Is An Inverted Yield Curve?

Today, August 14, 2019, the main part of the yield curveinverted. This is an important event because an inverted yield curve hashistorically been a very good predictor of a coming recession. In this articlewe will review

1. What the yield curve is

2. What it means when the yield curve inverts

3. Historical data showing why it’s been a goodpredictor of recessions

4. What it means for investors today

Understanding the Yield Curve

The yield curve is an economic indicator that originates from the bond market. It’s basically a chart that shows the yield of government bonds at different durations. For example, the yield on a two-year treasury note versus a 10 year government bond.  In a healthy economic environment, the curve is positively sloped as is illustrated by the chart below.

In a positively sloped yield curve, longer-term bonds have higher yields.  Here’s a hypothetical example using CDs. Let’s say you go into that bank and you are trying to decide between buying a 1 year CD or a 5 year CD.  In most cases you would naturally expect the 5 year CD to give you a higher level of interest because the bank is locking up your money for 5 years instead of 1 year.  If a 1 year CD gives you 1% interest, you might expect a five-year CD to give you 3% interest in a bond market that has a positively sloped yield curve, because the further you go out in duration, the higher the current yield.

However, sticking to our hypothetical example using CD's, there are periods of time when you go into the bank and the 1 year CD has a higher interest rate than a 5 year CD. That would make you ask the obvious question, “Why would anyone to buy a 5 year CD at a lower interest-rate than a 1 year CD? You get a higher investment return on your money for the next year and you get your money back faster?”.

The answer is as such, in the bond market, investors willsometimes buy bonds for a longer duration at a lower current yield because theyexpect a recession to come.  When arecession hits, typically the Federal Reserve will start lowering interestrates to help stimulate the economy. When that happens, interest ratestypically drop. Anticipating this drop in interest rates, bond investors are willingto buy bonds today that lock up their money for a longer period of time with alower yield because they expect interest rates to drop in the near future. 

So, let’s use the hypothetical CD example again.  You go into the bank and the 1 year CD rate is 3% and the 5 year CD rate is 2.5%. In an inverted yield curve situation, investors are buying those 5 year CD’s even though they have a lower interest-rate, because when the recession hits and the Fed starts lowering interest rates when that 1 year CD matures a year from now,  the new rate on CD’s may be a 1 year CD at 1% and 1.5% on a 5 year CD.  So from an investment standpoint today, it’s a better move to lock in your 2.5% interest rate for 5 years even though the yield is lower than the 1 year CD today.  You can see in this example why an inverted yield curve is such a bearish signal for the markets.

Below is an illustration of an inverted yield curve:

It’s a Very Good Predicator of Recessions

When you look at the historical data, it shows how frequently an inverted yield curve has preceded a coming recession. Below is a chart that shows the spread between a 2 year government bond and a 10 year government bond.  The yield curve is positively sloped when the blue line is above the dark black line.  When the blue line falls below the dark black line, that means that the yield curve is inverted. The grey areas in the chart indicate recessions. 

Today, the main part of the yield curve which means the 2year vs the 10 year bonds inverted. However, it’s important to point out that earlier in 2019, the yield onthe 10 year treasury bond dropped below the yield on the 3 month treasury note,so technically this is the second time the yield curve is inverted in 2019.

What Does That Mean for Investors?

If we use history as our guide, the inverted yield curve is a caution light for investors.  Historically, the main question people ask next is, “How long after the yield curve inverts does the recession usually begin?”.  Here is the chart:

As you can see, the problem with using this data to build an estimates timeline until the next recession is the variance in the data. Even though, in the past 5 recessions,  the “average” period of time between the inversion of the yield curve and the subsequent recession was about 12 months, in 2 out of the 5  recessions, the inversion happened within 2 months of the beginning of the next recession.   Timing the markets is very difficult and as we get into the later innings of this long economic expansion, the risks begin to mount.  For this reason, it very important for investors to revisit their exposure to risk asset to make sure they are properly diversified.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Will There Be A Santa Claus Rally This Year?

Going back 120 years, December has traditionally been a very good month for the stock market.  Within the last 120 years the S&P 500 has been positive in December 73% of the time.  The Russell 2000, which is the index for small cap stocks, has been up 87% of the time in December.   This boost in the final month of the year is known to traders as the “Santa Claus Rally”.  Should investors expect a Santa Claus rally in 2018 given the recent sell off in the markets?  The answer may hinge on the results of the Federal Reserve Meeting on December 19th. 

The Fed Decision

The fate of the Santa Claus rally may very well be in the hands of the Federal Reserve Committee this year.   The Committee’s decision regarding the Fed Fund Rate could either cause the market to rally if the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged or it could push the markets lower if they decide to move forward with the anticipated quarter point rate hike.   The Fed has a really tough decision to make this year.  The goal of the Fed is to keep interest rates at a level that promotes full employment and a target inflation rate of 2%.  In periods of economic expansion, it’s the Fed’s job to make sure the economy does not overheat which in turn could lead to prices of goods and services in the U.S. spiraling out of control.

Over the past few years, the U.S. economy has continued to expand and the Fed has been raising rates in quarter point increments.  A very slow pace by historic standards.   The Fed has already raised the Fed Funds Rate three times in 2018. What are the chances that the Fed raises rates again in December?

Solid Employment & Inflation In Check

The good news is there is not a lot of pressure for the Fed to raise rates in December.  As of October, the unemployment rate sits at 3.7% and the employment data that we have seen throughout November has been strong.  Historically, a strong job market usually results in higher wages for employees which is the main driver of inflation.  So in the current economic environment, the Fed’s main focus is keeping inflation within its 2% target range.  The Fed’s measuring stick for the rate of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.  Otherwise known as the “PCE”.

There is a “Headline PCE” and a “Core PCE”.  The Core PCE excludes prices for food and energy which is the Fed’s main barometer. Why does the Fed use Core PCE?  Food and Energy prices can fluctuate significantly over short periods of time which can distort the results of the PCE index.

Below is a chart of both the Headline PCE and the Core PCE:

As you can see in the chart, the blue line that represents the Core PCE is right below the Fed’s 2% target.  The PCE index is reported monthly and in October the PCE came in at a year-over-year change of 1.97%.  Also you will see in the chart, due to the drop in the price of oil over the past two months, the Headline PCE is also dropping.  While Headline PCE is not the Fed’s main measuring stick, there does seem to be a correlation between Headline PCE and Core PCE.  It makes sense because regardless of the price of the product that you are taking a sample of, that product needs to be transported from the producer to the end user, and that transportation cost, which is largely influenced by the price of oil, will have an impact on the price of product within the Core PCE index.

This is good news for the stock market going into the December Fed meeting. With the Core PCE running just below the Fed’s target 2% rate and the Headline PCE declining, there is not a big push for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate in December.  I would even make the argument that raising the Fed Funds Rate in December would be a mistake.

The Fed & The Stock Market

The Fed is not a slave to the stock market. It’s not the Fed’s job to make sure the stock market continues to go up. Just because the stock market has experienced a large sell off over the past two months does not mean that the Fed will come to the market’s rescue and not raise rates.  But remember, the Fed’s job is to keep the U.S. economy at full employment and keep inflation in check.   Since inflation remains in check, it would seem that the prudent decision would be for the Fed to pause in December.  If the Fed decides to raise rates in December, I have a difficult time understanding the catalyst for that decision. 

Drivers Of The Recent Sell Off

It’s been a frustrating year for investors.  Over the past 7 weeks, the U.S. large cap index, mid cap index, and small cap index have forfeited all of their gains for the year.  International equity markets have been crushed this year.  In a year like this, normally investors could turn to the bond portion of their portfolio for some support but that has not been the case this year either. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond index is down 2.38% year-to-date in 2018.    It’s been a return drought this year with a double dose of volatility.

While the rapid rise in interest rates at the beginning of October may have triggered the market sell off, the downturn has been sustained by revisions to the forward guidance offered by corporations within their third quarter earnings report.  While it has been another solid quarter of earnings for U.S. corporations, many of the companies that have been leading the bull market rally revised their forward earnings guidance down for the next few quarters.    U.S. corporations seem to be embracing the uncertainty created by the trade wars and the tight labor market going into 2019.

It’s important to understand that as of today corporate earnings have not fallen short of expectations.  As of November 14, 2018,  456 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 had reported 3rd quarter earnings.     77.6% of those companies reported earnings above analyst expectations.  This is above the long-term average of 64% and in line with the prior four quarter averaging of 77% exceeding expectations.

What really changed was the gross revenue numbers.  Of those 456 companies that reported, 60.4% of those companies reported Q3 revenue above analyst expectations.  That puts it in-line with the long-term average of 60% but below the average of the prior four quarters at 73%.  While the U.S. economy continues to show strength, U.S. corporations have largely built an “earnings buffer” into their forecasts.

Economic Expansions Do Not Die Of Old Age

Everyone is on the lookout for the next recession.   Each market sell off that we experience in this prolonged bull market rally makes investors question if they should run for hills.  As one would expect, as you enter the later innings of an economic expansion the markets will begin to become more volatile.   It’s easy for investors to hold their positions when the markets are going straight up with no volatility like 2017. It’s much more difficult to hold positions when it feels like you’re on a boat, in a storm, in the middle of an ocean.   The temptation to try and jump in and out of the market in these volatile market conditions becomes much greater.

It’s very difficult to predict the future direction of the stock market using the recent fluctuations in the stock market as your barometer for future performance.   If we look at many of the economic expansions in the past, we historically do not enter recession because the market calls it a day and just decides to go into a downward death spiral.  In the past, there was typically a single event or a series of events that caused the economy to go from a period of expansion to a period of contraction.  It’s for this reason that during these periods of heightened volatility that we rely heavily on the economic indicators that we track to determine how worried we should really be.

One of the main indicators that we track that I have shown you in previous updates is the Composite of Leading Indicators.   It aggregates a number of forward looking economic and market indicators in an effort to provide a measurement of the health of the U.S. economy.   See the chart below.

Each of the light blue areas shows when a recession took place going back to 1970.   As you will see, in most cases this indicator turned negative before the economy entered a recession.  If you look at what this indicator is telling us now, not only is the U.S. economy healthy, but over the past year it has strengthened.  If you look at where we are now, there has never been a time since 1970 that this economic indicator has been at its current level, and a recession just shows up out of nowhere 12 months later.

Conclusion

We have no way of knowing what action the Fed will take on December 19th.  However, given the tame level of inflation and the 3.7% unemployment rate, we would not be surprised if the Fed pauses at the December meeting which could lead to a health rally for the markets in December.   Even if the Fed throws the market a curve ball and moves forward with the quarter point rate hike, while this move may seal the markets hopes of posting a positive return for the 2018 calendar year, the economy is still healthy, the probability of a recession within the next 12 months is still very low, and interest rates, although rising, are still at historically low levels.  This economic environment may reward investors that have the discipline to make sound investment decision during these periods of heightened market volatility.   The “easy years” are clearly behind us but that does not mean that the economic expansion is over. Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving everyone!! 

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

The Stock Market Dropped 800 Points Today. Is This A Warning Sign?

There was a large sell off in the stock market today. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all dropped by over 3% in today’s trading session.  After a long bull rally, big drops in the stock market often lead investors to the question: “Is this big drop in the market the beginning of something worse to come?”  To answer that question, you have to identify what changed and more importantly what did not change in the economy and the markets over the past two weeks. 

Interest Rates Have Spiked

If there is a single indicator or event that we can point to that has triggered the recent sell-off, it would be the dramatic rise in interest rates.  Between September 17th and October 10th, the yield on a 10 year government bond went from 3% to 3.23%.  Now that may not sound like a big move but interest rates on a 10 year bond moving by 0.23% in less than a month is a big move.

When interest rates go higher, it increases the cost associated with borrowing money.  Mortgage News Daily reported yesterday that the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently at 5% compared to just below 4% a year ago.   As interest rates move higher, it may prevent some individuals from being able to finance a mortgage, get a car loan, or it may cause a business to forgo taking that loan to expand their business.

When interest rates rise gradually as they have over the past three years it historically does not prompt a big sell off because those higher rates are slowly integrated into the economy.  The yield on the 10 Year Treasury bottomed in May 2016 at 1.46% and has been steadily climbing ever since.  In May 2018, the 10 Year Treasury Bond was yielding around 2.80% so it took 2 years from the yield to go up by 1.34% compared to the 0.23% jump that we experience over the past 2 weeks.

Will The Rise In Rates Continue?

We could see a further rise in rates over the next few weeks but at this point, we have probably seen the majority of the big move up.  Even though the Fed is expected to raise rates in December and possibly three to four times in 2019, there are other forces at work that are anchoring our rates to lower levels.

The first being the lower level of global interest rates.  As you will see on the chart below, as of September 30, 2018, the U.S. is issuing 10 year bonds at 3.46%.  When you look at other “credit worthy” counties like Germany, they are issuing their 10 year bonds at 0.69%.  So when foreign countries have cash to park, they will gladly take the 3.46% interest rate for 10 years as opposed to 0.69% for 10 years.  This makes the demand for US debt high around the global and we are not pressured to issue our debt at higher rates to entice buyers because our rates are already a lot higher than debt being issued by other governments around the world.

The second reason that rates are most likely to remain at lower levels over the next few months is tame inflation.  When inflation rises above the Fed’s 2% target rate, they often respond by raising the Fed Funds Rate either more frequently or by larger increments.   As you will see in the chart below, the annual year over year change in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) as of August 2018, which is the Fed’s primary measure of inflation, was only up 2.2%.  Very close to the Fed’s target range so the Fed is not behind the inflation curve.  If inflation was roaring ahead at 3% or higher it would probably prompt the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate faster than the market expects.

Rates Are Still At Healthy Levels

Even though interest rates are rising, they are still at historically low levels.   Which then prompts the question:   “At what level do interest rates become problematic?”   If we use history as a guide, it would seem that once the yield on the U.S. 10 year treasury bond reach 4.50%, returns from the stock market come under pressure in the two year following the breach of that threshold.  But historically, when rate are where they are now and moving higher, the stock market has traditionally moved higher as interest rates were rising.

See the chart below which illustrated the correlation between interest rates and stock prices.  Each dot on this chart represents a 2 year return from the stock market between 1963 and 2018.  If there is a positive correlation, that means interest rates are moving higher and stock prices are moving higher at the same time.  This is illustrated with a dot placed above the line in the chart. Those are favorable environments and it makes sense because in the early stages of a rising rate environment the Fed is raising rates because the economy is healthy but rates are not higher enough yet where they are harming the growth rate of the economy.

Visa versa when the dots are below the line that means that there is a negative correlation between interest rates meaning interest rates are going up and stock prices are going down.

If you look at where 3.25% would be on the x axis you will not see any dots below the line. That would imply that between 1963 – 2018 when the interest rate on the 10 year treasury bond were at the current level and moving higher, two years later stock prices were always higher. Otherwise you would see a dot below the line.  If the stock market were to be lower 2 years from now and interest rates are at their current rates and moving higher, it would be the first time that has ever happened within the last 55 years.

Could stock prices be lower 2 year from now? Sure they could but if you use history as a guide, it would suggest that such an event would have a low probability of occurrence.

Conclusion

As of right now, it would seem that the recent sell-off in the U.S. stock market was triggered by an unexpected rise in interest rates over the past two week.  While higher interest rates are often revered as an unwelcome guest to bull markets, history would suggest that interest rates have not reached levels that would prompt an end to the current economic expansion.    We would also add that there are other forces at work such as tame inflation rates and a lower global interest rate environment that may prevent a further dramatic increase in rates from the current levels. 

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.